2027: Shehu Sani Says Bye-Elections Expose Opposition’s Grassroots Challenge
Former Kaduna Central Senator Shehu Sani has argued that the outcome of Saturday’s legislative bye-elections has exposed what he describes as a gap between the opposition’s online political presence and its ability to convert support into votes at the grassroots.
Sani, an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain and the party’s candidate for Kaduna Central Senatorial District in the 2027 election, made the observation after the ruling party secured four of the five legislative seats contested across Gombe, Kano, Bauchi and Delta states.
The Allied Peoples Movement (APM) won the remaining seat in Bauchi State.
Reacting to the results, Sani said opposition parties should examine the outcome rather than dismiss its significance as preparations intensify for the 2027 general election.
He described the results as demonstrating what he considers a difference between political popularity on social media and the organisation required to win elections.
“The ruling party swept the bye-elections conducted this weekend in the four states of the federation. That is one difference between cyberspace politics and real politics. The opposition can either dismiss it or learn some lessons from it,” Sani wrote in a post on X.
Using a football analogy, the former lawmaker suggested that parties preparing to challenge the APC in the 2027 general election should pay attention to their performance in smaller electoral contests.
Sani’s comments followed an election in which the APC won four of the five seats available, although his description of the ruling party as having “swept” the polls did not account for the APM victory in Bauchi.
The bye-elections covered the Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency in Gombe State, Dawakin Kudu State Constituency in Kano State, Disina and Sakwa State Constituencies in Bauchi State, and Udu State Constituency in Delta State.
The results have generated debate among political actors about what, if anything, the contests indicate ahead of the 2027 elections.
For the APC and some of its leading figures, the victories provide an opportunity to emphasise the importance of party structures, grassroots mobilisation and voter organisation.
Opposition parties, however, will have the opportunity to assess the results within the specific circumstances of each constituency rather than treating five legislative contests as necessarily representative of voting behaviour nationwide.
In Delta State, APC candidate Okolosi Ator won the Udu State Constituency election with 8,724 votes, while his closest challenger, George Biatere Orugbo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), received 214 votes.
The Udu election followed the declaration of the seat vacant after former occupant Collins Egbetamah defected from the APC to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
APC also recorded victories in Gombe, Kano and one of the two constituencies contested in Bauchi, while the APM denied the ruling party a clean sweep by winning the Sakwa State Constituency.
Beyond the individual victories, the results have renewed discussion about grassroots structures as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general election.
Social media has become an increasingly important part of Nigerian political communication, allowing candidates and supporters to reach large audiences directly. However, election outcomes ultimately depend on registered voters participating at polling units across constituencies.
Sani’s intervention seeks to frame Saturday’s results around that distinction, arguing that opposition parties must complement online mobilisation with stronger organisation on the ground.
The former senator himself is preparing for an electoral contest.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has listed Sani as the APC candidate for Kaduna Central in the 2027 National Assembly election.
He is expected to contest against incumbent Senator Lawal Usman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and candidates from several other political parties.
With the 2027 elections approaching, the significance of Saturday’s bye-elections is likely to remain contested. While APC figures may point to the four victories as evidence of organisational strength, five constituency-level contests alone cannot establish nationwide electoral trends.
What the results do provide is another set of electoral data for Nigeria’s political parties as they refine their mobilisation strategies ahead of the general election.
