Crisis Deepens in Ogun APC as Governor Dapo Abiodun Reportedly Defies President Tinubu’s Directive
Fresh tensions are rocking the Ogun State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC), as Governor Dapo Abiodun is once again said to be challenging the authority of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu a move reminiscent of the dramatic power tussle during the 2023 presidential primaries.
According to insiders, Governor Abiodun allegedly mobilised select ward executives some of whom were reportedly coerced into taking loyalty oaths to issue statements and take actions contrary to the explicit directive of the APC National Working Committee (NWC). The committee, acting under the authority of the President as party leader, had ordered all parties in Ogun to maintain the status quo pending its ongoing investigation into the crisis.
However, despite clear warnings, the governor’s camp reportedly went ahead with public releases, a move party loyalists describe as a “direct affront to the national leadership.”
Sources within the APC note that the tenure of both state and local government executives in Ogun expired months ago. Their continued stay in office was only possible through the benevolence of the NWC making their defiance even more provocative.
By implication, analysts say the local structures ought to operate strictly under national oversight, pending new congresses.
For weeks, the national leadership deliberately refrained from intervening in the Ogun crisis, widely believed to be observing the President’s body language. Their eventual decisive statement is being interpreted as a clear sign that they now have Tinubu’s approval to descend firmly on the situation.
Political observers warn that Governor Abiodun’s latest move suggests he may be ready to “go for broke,” possibly exploring overtures to opposition parties to destabilize the system — a move capable of undermining President Tinubu’s political hold heading into 2027.
The stakes are high. Ogun remains the most cohesive APC state in the entire Southwest, boasting heavyweight political leaders Aremo Olusegun Osoba, Gbenga Daniel (OGD), Senator Ibikunle Amosun (SIA), and Abiodun himself all within the APC.
This unity makes Ogun the only state in the region capable of reliably delivering up to 90% support for President Tinubu in the 2027 elections. Politically, Ogun’s influence spills over into Lagos, Oyo, and Osun due to geographical and political proximity.
Analysts fear that fragmenting the Ogun APC could disrupt Tinubu’s strategic vote tally in the Southwest.
Lagos: The 2023 Obidient surge, combined with shifting northern voting sentiments, threatens to make Lagos a fierce battleground again.
Oyo: Governor Seyi Makinde’s strengthening grip on the PDP could squeeze the APC further.
Osun: With the governorship election coming first, Aregbesola’s faction and Omisore’s political decisions could complicate APC’s path.
Ondo & Ekiti: Lukewarm political climates offer little buffer in terms of numbers.
Given these realities, Ogun remains the strongest firewall for the APC in the region. Any crack in the structure, analysts warn, could ripple across neighboring states and weaken the president’s Southwest dominance.
For Governor Abiodun to openly challenge directives believed to have President Tinubu’s approval suggests one thing: he may be exploring the spoiler route, starting with a bold public defiance.
What happens next could determine not just the future of Ogun APC but the political arithmetic heading into the 2027 general elections.
