With the major opposition parties, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), struggling with internal conflicts, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has emerged as a potential leader of the much-anticipated coalition ahead of the 2027 elections.
This development follows the recent defection of former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the SDP.
El-Rufai, one of APC’s founding members, made the switch shortly after a closed-door meeting with former Osun State Governor and former Interior Minister, Rauf Aregbesola, as well as Pastor Tunde Bakare, who previously ran as a presidential candidate alongside former President Muhammadu Buhari.
Positioning himself as a central figure in the opposition coalition, El-Rufai also met with Buhari in Kaduna last week, reportedly informing him of his defection plans.
Other notable figures mentioned in discussions about the coalition include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, former Minister of Transportation Chibuike Amaechi, and former Attorney General and Minister of Justice Abubakar Malami.
The coalition’s primary objective is to prevent President Bola Tinubu from securing a second term in the 2027 election.
Sources revealed that El-Rufai’s move to the SDP was a strategic step to gauge the ruling party’s response, with other opposition figures expected to follow suit.
A political insider, speaking anonymously, indicated that beyond the publicly known politicians, El-Rufai aims “to woo members of the CPC camp who have been sidelined within the APC.”
The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) was originally formed by Buhari in preparation for his unsuccessful 2011 presidential bid before merging with Bola Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) ahead of the 2015 elections, which ultimately led to Buhari’s victory.
Despite the coalition discussions, Atiku Abubakar remains hesitant about leaving the PDP, under which he contested the presidency in 2019 and 2023. While he has been vocal about forming an opposition alliance to challenge the APC, he recently denied claims that he had left the PDP, reaffirming his commitment to the party.
Similarly, former Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi has refuted reports of his departure from the APC, stating in a brief statement that he remains a dedicated founding member of the party.
El-Rufai, who has had a strained relationship with his successor, Governor Uba Sani, previously hinted at leaving the APC during an interview on Arise TV, suggesting that the party had moved away from him.
His ongoing engagements with SDP leaders since 2023 fueled speculation about his possible defection, particularly after his ministerial nomination by President Tinubu was rejected by the Senate—a decision El-Rufai has attributed to Tinubu.
The growing opposition coalition has led to speculation about a possible El-Rufai and Peter Obi joint presidential ticket in 2027, reportedly backed by some PDP governors. However, the PDP Governors Forum recently dismissed such claims.
It has also been reported that the SDP was chosen for its relative stability, making it a viable alternative for opposition forces. In the wake of the 2015 PDP crisis, some party leaders had considered shifting to the SDP if the faction led by Senator Ali Modu Sheriff had prevailed over Senator Ahmed Makarfi’s group. Similarly, during the APC primaries for the 2023 election, some of Tinubu’s allies viewed the SDP as a fallback option if he was denied the APC ticket.
PDP and LP Struggling with Internal Turmoil
With the 2027 elections approaching, both the PDP and Labour Party are still grappling with internal conflicts that have led to significant defections.
The PDP’s internal crisis, which predates the 2023 elections, has deepened, with ongoing power struggles between the G-5 PDP faction, led by former Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, and the pro-Atiku group.
Key disputes include calls for the resignation of PDP Acting National Chairman Amb. Illiya Damagum, as well as the rivalry between Wike and his successor, Governor Sim Fubara, over control of the party.
A separate battle over the PDP’s National Secretary position between Senator Samuel Anyanwu and Hon. Sunday Ude-Okoye has further complicated matters. Despite recognition from the party’s governors, Board of Trustees (BoT), and National Working Committee (NWC), Anyanwu remains determined to retain the position and awaits a Supreme Court ruling on the matter.
Additionally, a fresh crisis has emerged over the leadership of the PDP in the South-South region, leading to further divisions within the party and uncertainty for aspirants ahead of the Anambra governorship election.
Some PDP leaders have accused the APC of fueling these internal disputes to weaken the opposition and push Nigeria toward a one-party system.
The Labour Party is facing similar turmoil, with an ongoing leadership crisis. A faction of party leaders set up a Caretaker Committee led by former minister Senator Nenadi Usman in 2024 to challenge the return of Julius Abure as LP’s national chairman.
Although Abure legally contested the move and won in court, the party has remained fractured.
Meanwhile, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which placed fourth in the last presidential election, is also struggling with internal divisions. Party founder Boniface Aniebonam has been engaged in a power struggle with 2023 presidential candidate Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whom he accuses of hijacking the party.
This crisis has resulted in three factions within the NNPP—one loyal to Kwankwaso, another to Aniebonam, and a third to Kano State Governor Abba Yusuf.
Amid these upheavals, the SDP stands out as the only major national party currently free from infighting and major defections.
LP Stands Firm Amidst Political Shifts
Despite ongoing political realignments, the LP’s National Publicity Secretary, Obiorah Ifoh, downplayed concerns about the party’s state, asserting that it remains strong and is even attracting new members.
“I can tell you that political movement is based on interest. A member of the House of Representatives moved from PDP to Labour just last week.
“We are not concerned about the present alignment. We are only concerned about people holding political mandates who keep moving from one place to another. In the Labour Party, a lot has happened and will still happen before 2027,” Obiorah said.
He also indicated that the LP is awaiting a Supreme Court ruling on defection before making further announcements.
