2027: Tinubu Can Win, Opposition Must Accept Outcome — Segun Showunmi
Prominent political commentator and former Peoples Democratic Party governorship aspirant in Ogun State, Otunba Segun Showunmi, has weighed in on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s chances in the 2027 presidential election, arguing that the bigger challenge confronting Nigeria may not be who wins the contest, but whether political actors are prepared to accept the outcome.
Speaking during an interview, Showunmi said President Tinubu should not be underestimated ahead of 2027, warning that even if the President secures victory through the ballot, allegations of manipulation and rigging are likely to follow.
According to him, democracy cannot remain stable when politicians accept elections only when the outcome favours them.
“I pity him, because after he wins, they’re going to start saying he rigged,” Showunmi said.
He argued that the long-term stability of Nigeria would increasingly depend on the willingness of candidates, political parties and their supporters to respect electoral outcomes.
“The biggest challenge for the stability of this country going forward is not so much who wins or who loses, but how they accept outcomes,” he said.
Showunmi maintained that every election naturally produces winners and losers, stressing that political actors must recognise that voters have the constitutional right to choose between competing candidates.
He questioned the justification for continuously portraying a declared winner as illegitimate simply because opponents are dissatisfied with the result.
According to him, politicians cannot participate in an election with the expectation that the process is acceptable only when they emerge victorious.
When challenged during the interview over whether he had become a supporter of President Tinubu and his policies, Showunmi turned attention to what he described as longstanding national problems that previous administrations had opportunities to address.
Rather than judging policies merely on partisan considerations, he argued that Nigerians should examine the problems being confronted and ask why previous governments failed to introduce some of the reforms now being implemented.
Showunmi cited interventions in education, fiscal reforms, regional development and other structural changes as areas that deserve deeper examination.
He specifically referenced the establishment of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) as an intervention aimed at ensuring that financial difficulties do not automatically force students out of tertiary institutions.
“If you had a school institution where people cannot pay school fees and everybody is just running out of school, and somebody starts a NELFUND, and the others are sensitive, why didn’t they do it?” he asked.
His argument was that political discussions surrounding Tinubu should go beyond personalities and interrogate why certain structural problems were allowed to remain unresolved for years.
Showunmi also highlighted the creation of regional development commissions, arguing that Nigeria’s different geopolitical zones do not necessarily require identical development strategies.
According to him, policies that may produce positive results in Lagos or the South-West may not automatically address the developmental challenges confronting other parts of the country.
He therefore advocated greater disaggregation of national economic and poverty statistics.
Showunmi criticised civil society organisations and the National Orientation Agency for what he considers insufficient effort in breaking down economic data in ways that ordinary Nigerians can understand.
“You have to disaggregate the data,” he said.
According to him, breaking statistics down according to regions would make it easier to determine which areas are progressing, which are falling behind and what specific interventions each part of Nigeria requires.
“When you disaggregate the data, you will be able to see: How are the zones doing? Where are they pulling their weight? Where do they need help? What do we need to do more?”
He linked this thinking to the establishment of development commissions designed to address peculiar challenges across Nigeria’s geopolitical regions.
Showunmi also drew attention to increased revenues flowing to the different tiers of government.
He noted that states and local governments now have access to greater financial resources, making accountability at the subnational level increasingly important.
His position raises a broader question in Nigeria’s current economic debate: as government revenues increase, how much of the improvement is translating into development and better living conditions at the grassroots?
For Showunmi, responsibility for Nigeria’s development cannot be placed entirely on the Federal Government when states and local governments also receive public resources and exercise constitutional responsibilities.
The performance of governors and local government administrations, therefore, deserves greater scrutiny as Nigerians assess the country’s economic direction.
The politician also questioned what he described as excessive dependence on assessments from international financial institutions in determining whether Nigeria is making economic progress.
He referenced institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, arguing that Nigeria must develop sufficient confidence and institutional capacity to determine policies based primarily on its peculiar circumstances and national interests.
According to him, countries that have achieved major economic transformation did not simply surrender their development choices to external institutions.
He cited China and Indonesia while arguing that Nigeria must increasingly build domestic consensus around development priorities.
For Showunmi, the ultimate objective should be economic development, stability and a measurable reduction in poverty rather than celebrating macroeconomic figures that citizens cannot connect with their everyday experiences.
Turning directly to the 2027 presidential contest, Showunmi challenged opposition politicians to explain clearly what they would do differently if given power.
He suggested that criticism of Tinubu alone would not constitute an adequate electoral strategy.
“What are the others even saying in their alternative policies?” he asked.
The question could become increasingly important as political parties begin positioning themselves for the 2027 general election.
With opposition figures exploring coalitions and political realignments, Showunmi’s argument is that Nigerians should demand detailed alternatives rather than allowing the presidential election to become solely a referendum on personalities.
For every policy the opposition criticises, he suggested, there should be a credible explanation of what would replace it and how the alternative would produce better outcomes.
Despite his assessment of Tinubu’s prospects, Showunmi stopped short of declaring the 2027 election already won.
“Any election, anybody that has not been counted should not be called,” he said.
The remark underscores his position that elections ultimately have to be decided by voters rather than political projections.
However, his comments suggest that he believes available political and electoral indicators cannot be ignored when assessing Tinubu’s chances.
For the opposition, the message is equally significant: defeating an incumbent requires more than criticism, political rhetoric or assumptions about public dissatisfaction.
It requires organisation, credible candidates, grassroots structures and an alternative policy programme capable of convincing voters.
Showunmi concluded part of the discussion with a medical analogy to describe his philosophy toward solving Nigeria’s problems.
“If you want to do an operation for a patient, there are two ways. There are those who will come and be surgical, like a surgeon, and remove the problem. And there are those who will come like a butcher and start smashing everything and make it worse,” he said.
“I dare say I’m the surgeon.”
The analogy captured the central theme running through his intervention: Nigeria requires carefully considered reforms rather than policies driven solely by populism or political expediency.
As preparations for 2027 gather momentum, Showunmi’s intervention adds another dimension to the national political conversation.
His argument is not simply that Tinubu can win.
It is that the opposition must provide convincing alternatives, governments at every level must account for increased public revenues, economic statistics must be broken down to reveal regional realities, and political leaders must learn to respect legitimate electoral outcomes.
Ultimately, Nigerians will determine at the ballot box whether Tinubu deserves another four years.
But Showunmi’s challenge to both the government and opposition is clear: 2027 should be a contest of ideas, policies, records and credible alternatives — not merely accusations, personalities and post-election disputes.
