Oyo APC’s Quiet Realignment: Aggrieved Stakeholders, APM Defections and the 2027 Battle

Oyo APC’s Quiet Realignment: Aggrieved Stakeholders, APM Defections and the 2027 Battle

By Akin Alade

 

IBADAN — Beneath the increasingly visible political activities ahead of the 2027 elections, a quieter realignment appears to be taking shape within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Oyo State, with some aggrieved members and political networks moving towards the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), while others are choosing to remain in the APC but reducing their political commitment.

 

The development has added another layer to the APC’s longstanding struggle with internal cohesion in Oyo State. While the party has publicly intensified reconciliation efforts and its national leadership has called on stakeholders to close ranks, recent defections suggest that some grievances may not have been completely resolved.

 

The APC’s challenge is therefore no longer simply about who occupies which political position. At its heart is a larger question of trust, internal democracy, political inclusion and whether those who worked for the party in previous elections believe they have received adequate recognition for their contributions.

 

The quiet movement away from APC

 

One of the clearest recent developments came in September when APC members led by Ajiboye Sangogade, popularly known as Boye Nation, moved into the APM during a political gathering at the Lekan Salami Sports Complex in Ibadan.

 

Reports said the group drew supporters from several local government areas. Governor Seyi Makinde subsequently received the defectors into the APM and used the occasion to project the movement as evidence of growing support for his political platform.

 

The development, however, requires some qualification.

 

Sangogade had been associated with former Minister of Power and APC governorship aspirant Adebayo Adelabu, but Adelabu subsequently distanced himself from the defection. The former minister said Sangogade was no longer his personal assistant and no longer had an official political or representational relationship with him. Adelabu also maintained that he remained an APC member.

 

That distinction is important because the movement of a political network associated with a prominent aspirant cannot automatically be interpreted as the defection of the aspirant himself.

 

There had also been an earlier APC-to-APM movement in Oluyole, where former council secretary and APC chieftain Adedokun Adegboyega moved with political associates into the APM. Tribune reported that several ward-level political actors accompanied him.

 

Taken together, the developments have intensified questions about whether the APC is facing isolated defections or a broader problem of political disengagement among some of its grassroots networks.

 

The grievances behind the movement

 

Behind the public declarations are deeper complaints that have circulated among some APC stakeholders and supporters.

 

Some aggrieved party actors contend that they worked extensively for the party and its candidates during previous election cycles but have not seen what they regard as commensurate political recognition or the “dividends” of their labour.

 

For such individuals, the complaint is not necessarily that everybody who worked for the party must receive a government appointment. Rather, their argument is that political structures depend on trust between leaders and followers, and that grassroots mobilisation becomes difficult when party workers believe their sacrifices are repeatedly overlooked.

 

Some also argue that influential political actors have become disconnected from the people who built their structures at ward and local-government levels.

 

These remain political claims and perceptions rather than independently established facts. But their importance lies in the fact that political parties are often weakened not only by formal defections but also by silent disengagement — when members remain registered but stop mobilising, contributing resources or persuading their followers to participate actively.

 

The imposition argument returns

 

Another major source of tension is the controversy surrounding the process that produced the APC’s 2027 governorship candidate.

 

In May 2026, six APC governorship aspirants publicly rejected what they described as the imposition of candidates and demanded a transparent process. The aspirants included former Deputy Governor Rauf Olaniyan, Adewale Kareem, Musbau Asanike, Akeem Agbaje, Oyedele Alao and Ololade Bakare.

 

The aspirants specifically recalled the APC’s experiences in the 2019 and 2023 elections and argued that internal division, perceived imposition and grievances had contributed to the party’s difficulties.

 

Their argument was significant because it suggested that the controversy was not merely about individual ambition. It was also about whether the party had learnt enough from its previous electoral setbacks to prevent another internal rupture.

 

The controversy eventually culminated in the emergence of Senator Sharafadeen Alli as the APC governorship candidate.

 

For some party members, the outcome represented an opportunity to unite behind the candidate. For others, unresolved questions about the nomination process continued to affect their enthusiasm.

 

A familiar lesson from 2019?

 

The APC’s current predicament inevitably brings back memories of the party’s internal difficulties during the 2019 election cycle.

 

The party had entered that period as the governing political force in Oyo State but subsequently lost the governorship to the Peoples Democratic Party’s Seyi Makinde.

 

The APC’s 2026 governorship aspirants themselves invoked the lessons of both 2019 and 2023, arguing that internal divisions had weakened the party.

 

That history explains why the present dispute carries greater significance than an ordinary disagreement over party tickets.

 

For APC strategists, the central issue is whether disagreements can be contained before they become full-scale electoral fragmentation.

 

For aggrieved members, however, the argument is equally straightforward: reconciliation cannot simply mean asking people to forget what happened. They want assurances that the structures, processes and relationships that produced previous grievances will change.

 

Yilwatda’s intervention and the reconciliation question

 

The national leadership of the APC has recognised the problem.

 

In July, the Oyo State chapter established a reconciliation committee comprising prominent party elders and stakeholders to address grievances arising from the primary elections and other complaints from aspirants and party members.

 

The intervention was followed by a visit to Oyo State by APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, in August.

 

Yilwatda met with party leaders, stakeholders and members of the reconciliation committee and urged aggrieved members to unite in the interest of the party.

 

The national chairman described the APC as a family and said disagreements were normal within political organisations but should not be allowed to undermine the party’s collective interest.

 

Yet the subsequent political movements suggest that reconciliation remains a work in progress.

 

The emergence of new APC-to-APM movements weeks after the national chairman’s intervention does not necessarily mean the reconciliation effort has failed. It does, however, demonstrate that political grievances cannot always be resolved by a single meeting or declaration.

 

The APM factor changes the equation

 

The APC’s internal challenges are occurring at a time when Governor Seyi Makinde has already established an alternative political platform through the PDP-APM alliance.

 

Makinde formally declared his intention to contest the 2027 presidential election at a PDP-APM rally in Ibadan on May 14, 2026. He announced that the alliance would field candidates across electoral levels.

 

That political arrangement has created a destination for dissatisfied political actors who might otherwise have remained within the opposition parties.

 

The APM has subsequently expanded its political activities in Oyo State, while Makinde has publicly welcomed APC defectors.

 

The significance of this development is that aggrieved APC members now have a ready-made political platform with access to the machinery of the incumbent state administration.

 

This does not automatically translate into electoral success, but it changes the strategic calculations for every major political camp in Oyo.

 

Not everyone is leaving

 

An important part of the story is what has not happened.

 

Not every aggrieved APC member has defected.

 

In September, scores of APC members in Ibadan South-East publicly dismissed reports that they were preparing to leave the party for the APM. The group visited the APC state secretariat and reaffirmed its commitment to the party.

 

That episode demonstrates the complexity of the current situation.

 

The Oyo APC is not simply divided into two camps of “defectors” and “loyalists”. There appears to be a third category: members who remain in the APC but are waiting to see whether the party can resolve their grievances before they recommit fully to its campaign.

 

For political organisers, this category may ultimately prove just as important as those who have formally defected.

 

A registered member who remains inactive can be as difficult to mobilise as a member who has openly joined another party.

 

The politics of reward and recognition

 

At the heart of the complaints is also the perennial Nigerian political question of reward.

 

Campaigns require people to mobilise voters, organise meetings, finance activities, defend candidates and maintain structures between elections.

 

When elections are over, however, expectations often change.

 

Some party workers expect appointments, influence, access or opportunities. Governments and party leaders, on the other hand, have limited positions and competing interests to manage.

 

This creates an inevitable tension between political expectation and administrative reality.

 

Some APC stakeholders in Oyo believe that the failure to adequately manage that relationship has contributed to the present dissatisfaction.

 

Others may argue that political participation should not be reduced to the expectation of appointments.

 

The disagreement itself illustrates the larger management challenge confronting political parties: how to preserve loyalty when expectations exceed available positions.

 

Makinde’s own political terrain

 

The APC’s internal difficulties are taking place against a changing political environment for Makinde’s administration as well.

 

Makinde is seeking the presidency under the PDP-APM arrangement, making the 2027 election an unusually complicated contest in Oyo State.

 

His decision means that the governor is simultaneously managing state-level political succession and a national presidential campaign.

 

The APM has already begun its 2027 electioneering activities, with the party announcing Makinde’s presidential campaign structure in September.

 

The governor has also been actively engaging political groups and traditional institutions across the state.

 

But criticism from some political actors about his relationship with former supporters and political associates forms part of the wider contest for influence.

 

Such criticisms should be distinguished from independently verified evidence of declining support. Political opposition groups naturally have incentives to portray an incumbent as losing influence, while supporters have incentives to portray the administration as broadly popular.

 

The political significance is therefore less about accepting either narrative and more about watching what political structures actually move, who remains active and how grassroots networks behave as the election approaches.

 

The women question and the grassroots test

 

Recent public activities involving women and other grassroots constituencies have also generated political conversation in Oyo.

 

However, claims that particular women leaders have collectively abandoned the governor or that the administration has lost its grassroots support require careful verification before being presented as established facts.

 

What can be observed more safely is that women, community leaders, traditional institutions and grassroots organisations remain important political constituencies in Oyo.

 

Their public statements, endorsements, protests, meetings and mobilisation activities will therefore remain important indicators of the changing political atmosphere.

 

The same principle applies to the APC.

 

A party can appear united at the leadership level while dissatisfaction exists at ward level. Conversely, noisy disputes among senior politicians do not necessarily mean that grassroots voters have changed their political preferences.

 

The decisive question will be whether political grievances translate into actual changes in organisation and voter mobilisation.

 

A dangerous cycle or an opportunity for correction?

 

The APC now faces a choice of political management rather than simply a choice of campaign messaging.

 

If the grievances are addressed through genuine engagement, some members who have remained on the sidelines could potentially return to active participation.

 

If grievances remain unresolved, more individual political networks may continue to explore alternatives.

 

But there is another possibility.

 

The current crisis could force the party to examine its internal structures, improve consultation and create clearer mechanisms for managing defeated aspirants and disappointed party workers.

 

The July reconciliation committee and the subsequent intervention by the national chairman indicate that the party is aware of the need for such a process.

 

The question now is whether those interventions will produce visible changes at the grassroots.

 

The real battle is beyond defections

 

The most important feature of Oyo’s emerging political contest may therefore not be the number of people publicly crossing from one party to another.

 

It may be the number of people who remain politically undecided.

 

Some former APC supporters may join the APM. Others may remain in APC. Some may support individual candidates without formally changing parties. Others may simply withdraw from active politics until they are convinced that their interests and those of their leaders are being properly considered.

 

That makes the period between now and the 2027 elections particularly important.

 

The APC wants to reclaim Oyo State. The APM-PDP alliance wants to defend and expand its political base while promoting Makinde’s presidential ambition. Both sides therefore need functioning grassroots structures, credible messengers and political networks capable of converting leadership decisions into voter mobilisation.

 

What happens next?

 

The immediate test for the Oyo APC is whether its reconciliation effort can move beyond meetings among senior stakeholders and reach ward and local-government structures.

 

The second test is whether those who feel excluded can be persuaded that the party has changed its approach to internal decision-making.

 

The third is whether the party can prevent individual grievances from becoming collective defections.

 

For the APM, the challenge is equally significant: converting incoming political networks into a coherent statewide structure rather than merely celebrating defections.

 

For Makinde, the political task is broader still. His presidential ambition means that developments in Oyo will be watched not only as a governorship contest but also as an indication of how effectively his political network can operate beyond the state.

 

For voters, however, the most important issue remains what the competing parties and candidates ultimately offer on governance, representation, development and accountability.

 

The emerging Oyo political story is therefore not simply about who defected from APC to APM.

 

It is about whether years of complaints over inclusion, internal democracy, political recognition and leadership management will finally be resolved — or whether the same cycle of grievance, fragmentation and realignment that political actors themselves have identified from previous elections will repeat itself in 2027.

 

And as the campaign gathers momentum, the quiet decisions being made in wards, local governments and political homes across Oyo may prove just as consequential as the declarations made on the biggest stages.