Oyo APC and the Road to 2027: Can Yilwatda’s Apology Heal Old Wounds and End Years of Internal Division? — Part One

Oyo APC and the Road to 2027: Can Yilwatda’s Apology Heal Old Wounds and End Years of Internal Division? — Part One

By Akin Alade

For the All Progressives Congress in Oyo State, the road to the 2027 governorship election may not ultimately be determined by the strength of the opposition alone. The greater battle could be within.

Since losing the governorship of the Pacesetter State in 2019, the APC has repeatedly spoken about returning to Agodi Government House. It has reorganised, reconciled, campaigned and fielded candidates, yet victory has remained elusive.

The electoral figures tell a difficult story.

In 2019, Seyi Makinde of the Peoples Democratic Party defeated APC candidate Adebayo Adelabu with 515,621 votes against 357,982. Four years later, rather than closing the gap, the APC suffered a much heavier defeat. Makinde secured 563,756 votes, while APC candidate Teslim Folarin obtained 256,685.

That progression raises a fundamental question ahead of 2027:

Has Oyo APC truly diagnosed why it has remained outside Government House since 2019, or has the party repeatedly treated the symptoms while ignoring the disease?

That question became even more relevant on August 20, 2026, when APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, publicly apologised to members who believed they had been hurt, excluded or unfairly treated during the party’s internal processes.

Speaking in Ibadan during the inauguration of the APC governorship campaign office, Yilwatda acknowledged grievances arising from the primaries and said the National Working Committee accepted responsibility for the conduct of committees constituted by the national leadership.

He appealed to members who felt injured or excluded to forgive the party and unite ahead of 2027.

That apology may prove to be one of the most important interventions in Oyo APC politics in recent years.

But an apology, however sincere, is only the beginning.

The real test is whether reconciliation will translate into inclusion, recognition, political accommodation and genuine ownership of the 2027 project by the different tendencies inside the party.

Oyo APC’s Problem May Be Bigger Than Choosing a Candidate

It is easy to assume that the solution to Oyo APC’s challenge is simply finding a popular governorship candidate.

That may be only part of the answer.

Oyo APC is not a single political family in the conventional sense. It is better understood as a coalition of several historical tendencies, political blocs, former governorship structures, senatorial networks, legacy organisations and individual power centres.

Some of these tendencies originated before the APC itself existed.

There are politicians associated with the political tradition of the late Governor Lam Adesina.

There is the influential political family of the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi.

There are followers and associates of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala.

There is the network of former governorship candidate Teslim Folarin.

There is the Adelabu tendency.

There are political structures associated with Senator Abdulfatai Buhari, Senator Ayo Adeseun, Senator Olufemi Lanlehin and several influential leaders from Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, Oyo, Ibarapa and Ibadan.

Some overlap.

Some cooperate.

Some have competed against one another repeatedly.

And herein lies the challenge.

A party containing many strong politicians can become extremely powerful when interests are properly managed.

But when every group feels entitled, excluded or suspicious of the others, numbers become meaningless.

Where there is persistent disunity, electoral victory becomes increasingly difficult.

The Lesson APC Should Have Learned From 2019

The 2019 election should ordinarily have forced an extensive political audit within Oyo APC.

Adebayo Adelabu entered that election as the candidate of the ruling party.

But opposition forces succeeded in building a political coalition around Seyi Makinde, and Makinde defeated the APC by more than 150,000 votes.

Some APC figures and allied politicians who were dissatisfied with developments around the party operated from other platforms.

Olufemi Lanlehin contested under the ADC, while Adebayo Alao-Akala contested under the ADP before significant late-stage political realignments occurred.

The lesson was straightforward: fragmentation carries consequences.

Yet four years later, APC entered another governorship election while divisions remained visible.

2023 Was an Even Louder Warning

By 2023, the governorship race again reflected political fragmentation.

Teslim Folarin contested for APC.

Adebayo Adelabu, after leaving APC, contested under Accord.

Makinde remained the PDP candidate.

The result was devastating for the opposition.

Makinde won 31 of Oyo State’s 33 local governments and received 563,756 votes. Folarin received 256,685, while Adelabu received 38,357.

The combined votes of Folarin and Adelabu would still not have been enough to defeat Makinde.

Therefore, it would be simplistic to claim that disunity alone caused APC’s defeat.

Makinde clearly demonstrated substantial electoral strength.

But the fragmentation nevertheless weakened the opposition and exposed deeper questions about the APC’s capacity to manage ambition.

That brings Oyo APC to 2027.

Enter Sharafadeen Alli

The APC has now settled on Senator Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli as its governorship candidate.

Alli currently represents Oyo South in the Senate and brings considerable political and administrative experience to the contest.

His public-service record includes serving as the first elected Executive Chairman of Ibadan North Local Government, Secretary to the Oyo State Government and Chief of Staff under former Governor Rashidi Ladoja. He was elected to the Senate in 2023.

His relationship with Ladoja is an important part of his political history.

The present Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Rashidi Ladoja, remains an enormously respected former governor whose political legacy continues to carry weight in Oyo State.

Alli served closely under Ladoja as SSG and Chief of Staff.

That connection naturally gives Alli a political pedigree that cannot be ignored.

His candidacy has also received support from sections of the party leadership.

In May, APC leaders meeting in Ibadan endorsed Alli as a consensus governorship candidate, with Senator Ayo Adeseun among those publicly supporting the arrangement.

Alli was formally unveiled alongside his running mate, Adesoji Adedeji, in July.

But winning a party ticket is different from winning a state.

And this is where Oyo APC’s real work begins.

1. THE ALLI–LADOJA POLITICAL TENDENCY

Alli enters the race with one major advantage: experience.

He has operated at local, state and federal levels.

He has also been around Oyo politics long enough to understand the personalities, rivalries and historical divisions within the state.

His election to represent Oyo South in 2023 also offers evidence of electoral relevance. According to his official profile, he won the senatorial contest with 111,513 votes.

However, a senatorial constituency is not the entire state.

The governorship requires strong performance across Ibadan, Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso, Oyo, Ibarapa and other communities.

Therefore, Alli’s central task is not merely to sell himself.

It is to convince the various APC structures that his victory will also be their victory.

That may prove more difficult than obtaining the ticket.

2. THE ADELABU GROUP

Chief Adebayo Adelabu remains an important political figure in Oyo State.

He was APC’s governorship candidate in 2019 and secured 357,982 votes, meaning he once commanded a substantial statewide electoral structure.

He later left APC and contested the 2023 governorship election under Accord, receiving 38,357 votes.

He subsequently returned to APC and became part of the field of politicians interested in the party’s 2027 governorship ticket.

After Alli’s emergence, Adelabu was among prominent APC figures associated with reconciliation discussions and internal disagreements.

In July, Adelabu, Teslim Folarin, Abdulfatai Buhari and former Deputy Governor Rauf Olaniyan held a closed-door meeting reportedly focused on strengthening the party and discussing the way forward.

This is significant.

Whatever anybody may think about Adelabu’s present electoral strength, his political network cannot simply be wished away.

If his followers believe they have been marginalised, APC risks repeating old mistakes.

If they are genuinely integrated, the party becomes stronger.

3. THE TESLIM FOLARIN GROUP

Senator Teslim Folarin is equally impossible to ignore.

He was APC’s governorship candidate in 2023.

Although he lost heavily to Makinde, he still received 256,685 votes, demonstrating that he headed a political structure capable of mobilising hundreds of thousands of voters statewide.

Folarin’s network therefore remains politically relevant even if he is not the 2027 governorship candidate.

Reports after Alli’s emergence indicated that Folarin had not been attending some party meetings, although he later joined Adelabu, Buhari and Olaniyan for discussions about strengthening APC ahead of 2027.

That is precisely why Yilwatda’s reconciliation effort matters.

Can a politician who carried APC’s governorship flag in 2023 wholeheartedly campaign for another man in 2027?

Certainly.

Politics frequently requires such adjustment.

But genuine reconciliation cannot be assumed.

It must be cultivated.

4. THE AJIMOBI POLITICAL FAMILY

The late Senator Abiola Ajimobi governed Oyo State for eight years and remains one of the most consequential figures in the history of the progressive political movement in the state.

His death did not automatically dissolve his political family.

Former aides, commissioners, legislators, local government leaders and loyalists remain active within the political space.

Any APC strategy that fails to properly accommodate the Ajimobi political family would therefore be incomplete.

Some members of that tendency already work actively within APC.

But the more important question is whether they collectively feel that their years of labour, loyalty and political investment are reflected in present-day decision-making.

That question goes beyond ceremonial appearances at rallies.

Political inclusion involves influence.

It involves candidate selection.

It involves appointments.

It involves consultation.

And above all, it involves respect.

5. THE LAM ADESINA PROGRESSIVE FAMILY

The late Lam Adesina’s political school represents another historic foundation of progressive politics in Oyo State.

Adesina governed Oyo from 1999 to 2003 under the Alliance for Democracy and later became an important figure in the Action Congress tradition that eventually contributed to the political genealogy of today’s APC.

Many politicians who passed through that political family remain relevant.

Some have developed independent structures.

Others have aligned with different leaders over time.

The mistake would be assuming that historical loyalty automatically transfers to a new candidate.

Political families must be continuously engaged.

6. THE ALAO-AKALA STRUCTURE

The late Adebayo Alao-Akala also left behind a substantial grassroots political network, especially around Ogbomoso and other parts of Oyo State.

His political career crossed party lines, and his populist grassroots style created enduring personal loyalties.

Today, his political family remains visible.

Olamijuwonlo Alao-Akala has been listed as APC’s 2027 House of Representatives candidate for the Ogbomoso North/Ogbomoso South/Oriire Federal Constituency.

That suggests the Alao-Akala tendency has some representation within the current APC arrangement.

But one ticket cannot automatically be interpreted as complete political accommodation.

The larger question remains: how deeply has the structure been integrated into the statewide project?

7. SENATOR ABDULFATAI BUHARI AND OYO NORTH

Senator Abdulfatai Buhari is another powerful actor whose political relevance is difficult to dismiss.

His strength is especially significant in Oyo North.

He also sought APC’s governorship ticket.

A report on the internal primary figures placed him among the leading aspirants behind Alli and Adelabu.

Following the primary, Buhari joined Folarin, Adelabu and Olaniyan in the July meeting about the party’s future.

This raises an important strategic issue.

Oke-Ogun has long been politically sensitive to questions of representation and governorship rotation.

If APC wants a convincing statewide coalition, it must ensure that Oyo North leaders and voters do not feel that major decisions are made principally in Ibadan.

8. SENATOR AYO ADESEUN AND OTHER ESTABLISHED LEADERS

Senator Ayo Adeseun has emerged as one of the prominent advocates of Alli’s candidacy.

He played a visible role when APC leaders endorsed Alli as consensus candidate in May.

Other respected political figures, including Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, have also appeared at events supporting the party’s 2027 preparations.

Their involvement is important because successful reconciliation requires respected intermediaries who can communicate across old political boundaries.

But APC must avoid replacing one hierarchy with another.

Reconciliation should not create a new group of insiders while leaving former insiders feeling abandoned.

What About Those Who Lost Tickets?

This may be the most dangerous question confronting Oyo APC.

The governorship disagreement is only one layer of the problem.

There are senatorial contests.

There are House of Representatives contests.

There are House of Assembly contests.

Every ticket produces winners and losers.

The current APC National Assembly list includes Yunus Akintunde for Oyo Central Senate, Aderemi Oseni for Oyo South Senate and Hannah Ogunesan for Oyo North Senate, alongside 14 House of Representatives candidates.

However, after the selection process, the party itself publicly warned unsuccessful aspirants against continuing to present themselves as candidates, an indication that disputes did not disappear immediately after nominations were concluded.

That is where political management becomes critical.

An aspirant who spends years building a constituency organisation, employs hundreds of loyalists, finances ward activities and develops grassroots relationships cannot simply be told after losing a primary:

“Go home and support the winner.”

Politics rarely works so mechanically.

The aspirant may accept the outcome.

But what happens to his coordinators?

His ward leaders?

His financiers?

His youth structure?

His women leaders?

His polling agents?

His political expectations?

Unless those questions are answered, resentment survives beneath the surface.

Yilwatda’s Apology Is Therefore More Significant Than It Appears

When Yilwatda told aggrieved members that the national leadership accepted responsibility for mistakes and appealed for forgiveness, he acknowledged something Oyo APC urgently needed to confront.

Some members genuinely feel injured.

Some believe they were excluded.

Some believe particular interests were preferred.

Some believe decisions were predetermined.

Whether every allegation is correct is almost secondary to the political reality.

Perception itself can become an electoral problem.

A supporter who feels humiliated does not need to defect publicly to damage a party.

He can remain inside and become inactive.

He can refuse to mobilise.

He can stop funding activities.

He can tell his supporters to “vote their conscience.”

He can attend rallies but do nothing on election day.

Political sabotage does not always announce itself with a press conference.

That is why reconciliation must go deeper than photographs and handshakes.

Can All the Aspirants Truly Work for Sharafadeen Alli?

This is perhaps the defining question.

On paper, the answer is yes.

Alli has experience.

He has statewide political relationships.

He has the APC platform.

He has the support of influential leaders.

He has incumbency advantage at the federal level through a party controlling the presidency.

He also enters a race in which Makinde, who has personally defeated APC twice, will not be on the governorship ballot.

Those are significant advantages.

But elections are not won on paper.

For Alli to win, Adelabu’s people must see a reason to work.

Folarin’s supporters must see a reason to work.

Buhari’s structure must see a reason to work.

Ajimobi loyalists must see a reason to work.

Alao-Akala’s political family must see a reason to work.

The Lam Adesina political tradition must see a reason to work.

Oke-Ogun leaders must see a reason to work.

And hundreds of unsuccessful National Assembly and state Assembly aspirants must see a reason not merely to remain in APC, but to campaign enthusiastically.

That is a much bigger assignment than winning a primary.

The Opposition Will Be Watching APC’s Internal Wounds

Every unresolved APC grievance represents a potential recruitment opportunity for rival parties.

Oyo politics is fluid.

Political actors have changed parties repeatedly over the years.

Therefore, anybody who assumes that aggrieved aspirants will remain indefinitely simply because APC controls the Federal Government may be making a serious mistake.

If individuals believe their political future has been blocked, they will naturally explore alternatives.

That explains why continued defections should concern APC leadership.

A party seeking power cannot afford a continuous leakage of experienced grassroots organisers.

APC Has One Major Opportunity in 2027

There is nevertheless a reason APC supporters can remain optimistic.

The 2027 election will be fundamentally different from 2019 and 2023.

Seyi Makinde cannot seek another term after completing two terms.

For the first time since APC lost power, it will contest against a PDP candidate who does not possess Makinde’s personal incumbency.

That creates an opening.

But it does not automatically create victory.

The opposition will also understand that Makinde’s succession strategy will determine the future of its own political establishment.

Therefore, both sides will fight intensely.

APC’s greatest advantage may be its diversity of experienced politicians.

Its greatest weakness may be exactly the same thing.

Too many strong leaders can create a formidable coalition.

Too many competing ambitions can also destroy one.

The Question APC Must Answer Before 2027

Oyo APC does not suffer from a shortage of political heavyweights.

It has former ministers.

Former senators.

Serving senators.

Former governorship candidates.

Former deputy governors.

Experienced lawmakers.

Business leaders.

Grassroots politicians.

Legacy political families.

What it has struggled to consistently demonstrate is the ability to bring these interests together behind one project without leaving substantial sections feeling abandoned.

That is why Professor Yilwatda’s intervention should not end with an apology.

The party may need a genuine political inclusion framework.

Not everyone can receive a ticket.

Not everyone can receive an appointment.

Not everyone can become governor.

But everybody who has invested substantially in building the party should at least understand his or her place within the project.

That is political management.

2027 May Be Oyo APC’s Best Chance—and Its Biggest Test

Sharafadeen Alli may indeed prove to be a good choice.

His experience is not in doubt.

His longstanding relationship with respected political institutions is an asset.

His exposure to local government, state administration and federal lawmaking gives him a broad résumé.

But elections are rarely won by résumé alone.

The future of Oyo APC will depend on whether the party can transform Alli from the candidate of those who produced him into the candidate of every major tendency within APC.

That distinction is crucial.

If APC succeeds, 2027 could represent its strongest opportunity to reclaim the Pacesetter State since losing power in 2019.

If it fails, the party could once again discover that having many political gladiators does not automatically translate into electoral strength.

Yilwatda has apologised.

Alli has extended an olive branch.

The national leadership has acknowledged grievances.

Now comes the difficult part:

Who will genuinely forgive?

Who will work?

Who will merely pretend to work?

Which blocs have been adequately accommodated?

Which powerful politicians remain politically stranded?

How popular are the APC’s 2027 candidates within their individual constituencies?

Which aspirants were dropped despite maintaining stronger grassroots structures?

Can the current senatorial and House of Representatives candidates deliver their constituencies?

And ultimately:

Can Sharafadeen Alli persuade every major APC tendency to sacrifice individual ambition for the collective objective of returning the party to Agodi Government House?

Those are the questions that will determine the future of Oyo APC.

To be continued in Part Two.

COMING IN PART TWO

Part Two will examine the APC’s candidates constituency by constituency—their political strength, grassroots relevance, previous electoral performance and the interests displaced by their emergence. It will also analyse the three senatorial tickets, the major House of Representatives candidates, the Oke-Ogun equation, Ibadan voting strength, Ogbomoso politics and whether the coalition around Sharafadeen Alli is broad enough to defeat the opposition in 2027.