Osun Election: ADC Reveals Accord Collaboration as Fresh Questions Emerge Over Why APC Lost

Osun Election: ADC Reveals Accord Collaboration as Fresh Questions Emerge Over Why APC Lost

By The Nigeria Standard Magazine

Fresh details emerging from the August 15, 2026 Osun State governorship election are beginning to provide a clearer picture of the political calculations that contributed to the defeat of the All Progressives Congress (APC), as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has disclosed that it deliberately collaborated with Governor Ademola Adeleke’s Accord Party to prevent the APC from returning to power.

The disclosure introduces a significant new dimension to the post-election analysis, suggesting that the APC did not merely confront Adeleke and Accord at the ballot box but also faced a degree of strategic opposition cooperation designed to avoid splitting votes that could have benefited APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO.

ADC National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi said the party recognised before the election that allowing opposition forces to compete at full strength independently could divide the anti-APC vote and potentially hand victory to the ruling party at the federal level.

“We saw the possibility of collaboration. We saw the possibility earlier enough that if we decided to go full throttle, the possibility that the opposition would divide the votes and the APC would take the victory was there,” Abdullahi said.

The admission has inevitably raised fresh questions over why APC lost the Osun election despite mounting one of its strongest campaigns in recent years, securing heavyweight endorsements and considerably improving on its previous electoral performance.

Adeleke Wins, But APC Records Formidable Showing

INEC declared Adeleke winner of the election after the incumbent defeated Oyebamiji to secure another term.

Oyebamiji finished second with 444,815 votes, according to the results, despite the intense campaign mounted by APC across the state’s 30 local government areas.

The APC candidate has since endorsed his party’s decision to conduct a comprehensive review of the election, saying he respects the process and awaits the outcome of the internal assessment.

That review could become particularly important following ADC’s admission of collaboration with Accord.

Rather than viewing the defeat simply as a rejection of the APC candidate, emerging evidence suggests that several political factors converged against the party.

1. Opposition Collaboration Reduced Vote Splitting

Perhaps the most significant new factor is the ADC’s disclosure.

Ordinarily, a competitive ADC campaign could have taken votes from both major candidates. But according to Abdullahi, the party strategically considered the possibility that aggressively pursuing its own governorship ambition could divide opposition votes and improve APC’s chances.

This calculation appears to have influenced how the ADC approached the election.

For the APC, therefore, the election became more complicated than a conventional three-way contest.

ADC’s disclosure suggests that behind the visible competition on the ballot was a strategic calculation among some opposition elements to ensure that APC did not benefit from fragmentation.

This may become one of the most important lessons from Osun ahead of the 2027 general elections, when opposition cooperation is already emerging as a major political strategy.

2. Adeleke’s Grassroots Strength Remained Significant

Another factor APC must confront is Adeleke’s personal grassroots appeal.

ADC chieftain and veteran journalist Dele Momodu, analysing the outcome, attributed Adeleke’s victory partly to his grassroots connection with voters.

Momodu argued that Adeleke had built a political image of accessibility and maintained a strong relationship with ordinary people.

The result in Ede South, for instance, demonstrated the strength of Adeleke’s political base. He recorded 26,188 votes there against Oyebamiji’s 6,219.

Adeleke also won Iwo Local Government with 27,085 votes against APC’s 19,660.

For APC, this means political structure, endorsements and campaign rallies were not sufficient to neutralise the governor’s established grassroots network in several critical areas.

3. Some APC Heavyweights Failed to Deliver Their Strongholds

One of the biggest surprises of the election was the performance of influential political figures in their own polling units and communities.

Former Osun Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who backed Oyebamiji, lost his polling unit to Adeleke.

This illustrates a recurring reality in Nigerian elections: endorsements from political heavyweights do not automatically translate into votes.

APC entered the election with the backing of prominent politicians and influential groups, but the results demonstrated that some political leaders were unable to convert their endorsements into sufficient votes at grassroots level.

That is an area the party’s post-election committee may need to examine closely.

4. Internal APC Grievances May Have Hurt the Party

Another potentially important factor was unresolved dissatisfaction following the APC’s internal political processes.

Post-election analysis indicates that although aggrieved governorship aspirants did not formally leave the APC, some of their supporters reportedly worked against the party.

If established, this would represent a significant structural weakness.

Winning an election requires more than bringing party leaders together publicly. Reconciliation must extend to supporters at ward, local government and polling-unit levels.

Political leaders may appear together at rallies while their followers remain unhappy underneath.

The Osun result may therefore force APC to examine whether its pre-election reconciliation genuinely reached the grassroots.

5. Adeleke’s Incumbency Provided Organisational Advantage

Adeleke entered the election not merely as a candidate but as a sitting governor seeking another term.

Incumbency naturally provides political visibility and allows a governor to campaign on projects, programmes and relationships developed during the first term.

Accord also aggressively framed the election as a choice between continuing Adeleke’s administration and returning to an earlier APC era.

During the campaign, Adeleke repeatedly warned voters against what he described as a return to the period of “half salaries,” using memories of previous economic difficulties as part of his political messaging.

Whether every voter accepted that narrative is another matter, but politically, it gave Accord an emotionally powerful campaign message.

6. Adeleke Family and Davido Factor

The influence of the Adeleke family also cannot be completely separated from the governor’s political strength.

Dele Momodu specifically credited superstar musician Davido with helping the campaign, particularly through social media mobilisation and dissemination of election information.

Davido commands an enormous youth and online following, giving Adeleke access to a communications platform few governorship candidates in Nigeria can easily replicate.

While celebrity support alone cannot win an election, it can strengthen enthusiasm, visibility and youth mobilisation when combined with an established political organisation.

7. Election-Day Challenges Also Form Part of the Picture

The election was not without difficulties.

Observers reported delays in the arrival of INEC officials, BVAS malfunctions and isolated violence.

Kimpact Development Initiative, which deployed 370 observers covering 1,660 polling units, reported that 43 per cent of the polling units it monitored experienced delayed arrival of election officials. It also documented 19 suspected cases of vote trading.

There were also reports of violence, intimidation and disruption in some polling units.

These incidents should be carefully investigated, although they should not automatically be presented as proof that they determined the final result without supporting evidence.

8. APC May Have Underestimated Strategic Voting

ADC’s latest disclosure perhaps offers the biggest political lesson.

APC may have approached the contest believing that multiple opposition candidates would naturally fragment the anti-APC vote.

Instead, ADC says opposition actors recognised that possibility and adjusted their strategy.

That changes how the election should be analysed.

The question is no longer simply why voters chose Adeleke over Oyebamiji. It also becomes how much deliberate opposition cooperation contributed to consolidating votes against APC.

APC’s Strong Showing Means Party Is Far From Finished

Despite losing the election, however, the figures also suggest that APC remains a formidable political force in Osun.

Oyebamiji’s 444,815 votes represent a substantial electoral base.

That means APC’s post-election exercise should arguably focus less on despair and more on identifying where additional votes could have been secured, why certain influential supporters failed to deliver expected numbers, and whether internal grievances weakened mobilisation.

Oyebamiji himself has backed the party’s review of the result, describing it as an opportunity to understand what happened and strengthen APC going forward.

Osun Result Carries Major 2027 Lesson

Beyond Osun, the ADC revelation could have national implications.

Opposition leaders across Nigeria have increasingly discussed cooperation as a strategy for confronting President Bola Tinubu and the APC in the 2027 general elections.

Osun may now provide them with a practical case study.

If opposition parties believe strategic cooperation contributed to preventing an APC victory in Osun, they may attempt to replicate such arrangements in future elections.

For APC, the lesson is equally significant: the party cannot necessarily depend on opposition fragmentation.

It may have to prepare for elections in which different opposition blocs cooperate formally or informally around whichever candidate they believe has the strongest chance of defeating APC.

Why APC Lost Osun: No Single Explanation

Ultimately, APC’s defeat cannot credibly be attributed to one factor alone.

ADC’s admission of collaboration with Accord is important, but other factors — Adeleke’s grassroots strength, incumbency, unresolved APC grievances, the performance of political heavyweights, Accord’s campaign messaging, the Adeleke family’s mobilisation capacity and election-day dynamics — also require consideration.

The APC nevertheless demonstrated through its vote total that it retains substantial support across Osun.

The real question for the party is what it does with that support.

If its internal review identifies genuine weaknesses and produces effective reconciliation and stronger grassroots organisation, the defeat could become a foundation for rebuilding.

But if the lessons are ignored, the same political weaknesses could reappear in future elections.

For the wider Nigerian political landscape, ADC’s disclosure has made the Osun election even more significant: it suggests that opposition cooperation, rather than opposition fragmentation, could become one of APC’s biggest challenges heading into 2027.