Fuel Scarcity Fears as Nigeria Petrol Supply Drops 23%
Nigeria’s petroleum sector is facing fresh concerns over fuel availability and rising energy costs following a sharp decline in petrol supply, despite increased production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The development has raised questions about the country’s fuel distribution system and its ability to guarantee stable supplies for millions of consumers.
Latest figures released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) revealed that daily petrol receipts dropped by approximately 23 per cent in September 2026, falling from 50.5 million litres in August to 38.7 million litres. The decline represents a reduction of 11.8 million litres daily, occurring at a time when national petrol consumption increased by seven per cent to 44.4 million litres per day.
The situation became more concerning as both imported and locally supplied petrol recorded significant reductions. Petrol imports declined by 30 per cent, from 14.6 million litres daily to 10.2 million litres, while domestic receipts dropped by about 21 per cent, from 35.9 million litres to 28.5 million litres. The simultaneous reduction in both supply channels has intensified concerns about the resilience of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.
Interestingly, the decline occurred despite improved production performance at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The facility increased its average daily petrol output from 41.94 million litres in August to 47.22 million litres in September, representing a 13 per cent increase. Its capacity utilisation also rose to approximately 106 per cent, demonstrating stronger refining activity even as the volume of petrol delivered to the Nigerian market declined.
Further examination of the regulatory figures revealed that the refinery increased its petrol exports from 9.73 million litres daily in August to 15.47 million litres in September, representing a 59 per cent rise. This development highlights the growing distinction between domestic refining capacity and actual petrol availability within Nigeria. Although higher exports do not automatically indicate a supply failure, the figures raise important questions about pricing, commercial incentives and domestic distribution arrangements.
For Nigerian motorists, transport operators, traders and small business owners, the decline comes amid persistent pressure from high fuel prices. The regulator’s indicative petrol prices for September stood at approximately N1,371 per litre in Lagos, N1,420 in Abuja, N1,448 in Kano and N1,465 in Maiduguri. These elevated costs continue to place financial pressure on transportation, food distribution and businesses that depend heavily on petroleum products.
The challenge also extends beyond petrol. Nigeria’s diesel receipts declined by approximately 40 per cent, from 14.5 million litres daily in August to 8.7 million litres in September. The development is particularly significant for manufacturers, logistics companies and businesses that rely on diesel-powered generators and heavy-duty equipment. Reduced diesel availability could create additional pressure on production and operating costs if supply conditions fail to improve.
Meanwhile, domestic refineries received an average of 618,000 barrels of crude oil daily in September, representing a nine per cent reduction from the previous month’s 681,000 barrels. Regulatory data further showed that Nigerian crude accounted for 80.4 per cent of the 156.51 million barrels supplied to domestic refineries between January and September 2026, while imported crude represented the remaining 19.6 per cent.
The latest developments have renewed attention on the Federal Government’s efforts to strengthen domestic refining, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and establish a more reliable fuel supply system. Industry observers will be watching whether improved refinery production can translate into greater domestic availability, particularly as the country approaches the final months of 2026.
Although the September figures do not establish that widespread fuel scarcity is imminent, they underscore the importance of effective supply monitoring, adequate inventories and transparent coordination between regulators, refiners, importers and marketers. For Nigerians already struggling with high living costs, the central concern remains whether increased local refining capacity will ultimately deliver reliable petrol supplies and more competitive prices across the country.
