Osun 2026: Why Political Realignments, Accord Crisis and APC Reconciliation Could Boost Oyebamiji’s Chances

 

By Akin Alade

Osun 2026: Why Political Realignments, Accord Crisis and APC Reconciliation Could Boost Oyebamiji’s Chances

With the Osun State governorship election now just days away, the political atmosphere across the “State of the Living Spring” has entered a decisive phase, with shifting alliances, internal party disagreements, defections and debates over Governor Ademola Adeleke’s record reshaping a contest that appears markedly different from the election of four years ago.

Thirteen candidates are officially in the race for the August 15, 2026 governorship election, but political attention has largely centred on incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, All Progressives Congress candidate Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO, and African Democratic Congress candidate Najeem Salaam.

Four years ago, Adeleke entered the governorship contest under political circumstances that largely worked in his favour. The then-ruling APC was battling internal disagreements, while some prominent stakeholders and political groups who had previously supported the party became estranged from the administration of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola.

The internal crisis created room for opposition forces to rally around Adeleke. Some politicians who ordinarily belonged to different political tendencies found common ground in their desire to change the government. That broad political coalition eventually became an important component of Adeleke’s electoral strength.

Ahead of the 2026 election, however, the political configuration has changed considerably.

One of the most significant differences is the political position of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola. Rather than being part of the political forces that contributed to the APC’s difficulties four years ago, Aregbesola is now a leading actor in the African Democratic Congress, whose candidate, Najeem Salaam, is contesting against both Adeleke and Oyebamiji.

The emergence of the ADC as a third force adds another dimension to the contest because it could split voting blocs that might otherwise have consolidated behind either of the two leading candidates.

For the APC, one of its major advantages going into Saturday’s election is the effort to rebuild internal unity after the divisions that hurt the party in 2022.

Several political actors who previously disagreed with the APC leadership have returned or re-established working relationships with the party. APC campaigners say the reconciliation has created a considerably more formidable political structure than the divided platform that contested the previous governorship election.

The party has also attracted politicians from rival camps, including individuals who previously worked against it. For the APC, bringing aggrieved members back into the fold could prove particularly important because closely contested elections are often determined by grassroots structures and the ability of political parties to mobilise supporters across wards and polling units.

The biggest political development in the final days of the campaign, however, came on Thursday, August 13, when Accord National Chairman Prof. Christopher Imumolen announced that the party’s National Working Committee was withdrawing support for Adeleke and backing APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji.

Speaking at the APC governorship mega rally in Osogbo, Imumolen called on Accord members in Osun to support Oyebamiji, following disagreements within the party that had earlier affected its campaign activities.

The development represents an unusual political challenge for Adeleke. Although he remains the Accord candidate for the election, he is entering the final stretch of the campaign amid an open disagreement with a section of the national leadership of the platform on which he is seeking re-election.

This contrasts sharply with some of the circumstances surrounding his victory four years ago, when divisions within the then-ruling APC worked to the advantage of the opposition.

Adeleke nevertheless remains a formidable candidate. As the sitting governor, he goes into the election with the advantage of incumbency and a record his supporters believe should earn him another four-year mandate.

His administration has highlighted road construction, infrastructure and other government interventions as evidence that Osun has witnessed progress, while his supporters argue that projects executed during his tenure justify his call for continuity.

But the governor’s record has simultaneously become one of the APC’s biggest campaign weapons.

Questions over the geographical distribution of development projects, particularly the proposed airport project in Ede, Adeleke’s hometown, have become an important campaign issue.

Adeleke has defended the choice of location, maintaining that technical considerations informed the decision and arguing that being governor should not mean abandoning his community. His opponents, however, have questioned whether major state projects and appointments have been sufficiently distributed across Osun.

The APC has repeatedly accused the administration of concentrating disproportionate political and developmental attention on Ede, an allegation the governor’s supporters reject.

Another issue dominating the final stage of the campaign is the amount of federal allocation available to the Adeleke administration.

Oyebamiji recently challenged Adeleke to explain how his administration has utilised what the APC candidate said was about N650 billion in federal allocations received in roughly three-and-a-half years.

Oyebamiji contrasted the figure with approximately N450 billion which he said Osun received during the combined 12 years of the administrations of Rauf Aregbesola and Gboyega Oyetola.

“How does N650 billion match what we see in Osun today?” Oyebamiji asked, making accountability and value for public revenue central issues in the APC’s closing campaign.

The figures remain campaign claims advanced by the APC candidate, but they have contributed to a wider debate over whether the level of development recorded under Adeleke corresponds with the resources available to his administration.

For APC strategists, the argument is straightforward: voters should compare the resources available to successive administrations with what each was able to deliver.

Adeleke’s camp, on the other hand, is relying heavily on visible projects, incumbency, grassroots popularity and its argument that the administration has delivered enough during its first term to deserve continuity.

Yet politics is not determined by achievements alone. Coalitions, party structures, voter mobilisation and political relationships frequently become decisive, particularly in closely contested elections.

That is where APC supporters believe Oyebamiji enters the final stretch with an improving political advantage.

Adding weight to the APC’s grassroots mobilisation is the Osun League of Professional Women, headed by Barrister Adesola Ajiboye-Omotowo, which has undertaken an extensive house-to-house campaign across communities in the state.

Speaking with our reporter after the exercise, Barrister Adesola Ajiboye-Omotowo, President of the Osun League of Professional Women, said the feedback received from residents during the grassroots campaign was encouraging and had strengthened the group’s confidence in Oyebamiji’s chances.

According to her, members personally financed the initiative because of their conviction that Osun requires experienced, technically sound and development-driven leadership capable of taking the state to another level.

“We have concluded our house-to-house campaign, and the outcome was awesome. The feedback from the people was encouraging and interesting. This was a self-sponsored project because we genuinely want something better for our dear state. We want the labour of our heroes past to be fruitful and their dreams for Osun to become a reality,” she said.

According to Ajiboye-Omotowo, Oyebamiji possesses the administrative experience and technical competence required to reposition Osun, adding that his relationship with the Federal Government could strengthen the state’s capacity to attract major federal projects, investments and other development opportunities.

“Osun needs someone like AMBO. He is technically sound, experienced and understands administration. He also has a robust relationship with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Federal Government. We believe this relationship can be leveraged to attract meaningful federal projects and investments to Osun State,” she added.

Ajiboye-Omotowo maintained that Osun deserves greater economic opportunities, improved infrastructure, job creation and stronger collaboration with the Federal Government, arguing that the state should take advantage of every available political and economic opportunity capable of accelerating its development.

For the Osun League of Professional Women, the house-to-house campaign was more than a conventional political mobilisation exercise. The group said it provided an opportunity to interact directly with residents, listen to their concerns and explain why its members believe Oyebamiji represents a credible alternative for the state.

The organisation’s involvement also reflects the growing role of professional and civil groups in the final phase of the campaign, as political parties and their supporters move beyond large rallies to direct engagement with voters at community and household levels.

The argument around federal alignment has consequently become another major APC campaign message.

At the APC mega rally, Progressives Governors’ Forum Chairman Hope Uzodinma similarly urged voters to support Oyebamiji, arguing that having an APC administration in Osun could strengthen the state’s relationship with the Federal Government.

While belonging to the same political party as the Federal Government does not automatically guarantee development, APC campaigners believe political alignment could improve coordination and strengthen Osun’s ability to lobby for federal interventions and major projects.

The election therefore presents voters with competing propositions.

Adeleke is asking residents to judge him by his record and give him another four years. Oyebamiji is asking voters to compare the resources available to the current administration with its achievements while offering what the APC describes as technical competence, political stability and stronger federal collaboration. Salaam and the ADC, meanwhile, are presenting themselves as an alternative to both camps.

The APC’s greatest improvement compared with four years ago may ultimately be political reconciliation.

Where division weakened the party ahead of the previous election, APC supporters believe the return of previously aggrieved members, the reconciliation of competing tendencies, new entrants from rival political camps and intensified grassroots mobilisation have helped rebuild a formidable electoral structure.

Some politicians and supporters who left the APC amid the disagreements surrounding the 2022 election have returned to the party, while the APC has also received defectors from other political platforms. Party leaders believe these developments have restored confidence and strengthened the organisation ahead of the election.

The crisis within Accord has further altered the political arithmetic. A sitting governor ordinarily benefits from possessing an established and united political platform, but disagreements within the party have introduced another element of uncertainty into Adeleke’s re-election campaign.

There is also the Aregbesola factor.

With the former governor now working with the ADC and Najeem Salaam contesting on the party’s platform, political blocs associated with Aregbesola that might have been part of a broader anti-APC movement four years ago now have their own candidate.

For Oyebamiji, this fragmentation could prove advantageous if the APC succeeds in keeping its traditional support base together while converting recent reconciliation efforts, endorsements, defections and grassroots mobilisation into actual votes.

Still, elections are ultimately decided at polling units, not at rallies, endorsements or political declarations. Adeleke retains grassroots support and the advantages associated with incumbency, while the emergence of the ADC means the election cannot simply be viewed as a repeat of the APC-versus-Adeleke battle of 2022.

What is increasingly clear is that the political conditions which helped Adeleke four years ago are no longer identical.

The APC that entered the previous election divided now presents itself as reconciled and reorganised. Some political forces that were previously opposed to the party have changed direction, the ADC has emerged as a significant third force, and disagreements within Accord have surfaced at a critical stage of the campaign.

At the same time, questions surrounding federal allocations, the distribution of projects, the Ede airport controversy and the administration’s overall performance have provided the opposition with issues around which to mobilise voters.

For Adeleke, the task is to convince the electorate that his achievements outweigh those criticisms and that continuity represents the better option for Osun.

For Oyebamiji, the challenge is different: the APC must convert its renewed unity, returning members, political endorsements and extensive grassroots mobilisation — including initiatives such as the house-to-house campaign undertaken by the Osun League of Professional Women under Barrister Adesola Ajiboye-Omotowo — into votes.

That changing political arithmetic has given Bola Oyebamiji and the APC genuine grounds for optimism.

As Osun voters prepare to cast their ballots on August 15, the defining question may therefore be whether Adeleke’s record, incumbency and personal popularity are strong enough to overcome the changing alliances around him — or whether APC’s reconciliation, grassroots mobilisation and Oyebamiji’s promise of technical leadership and stronger federal collaboration will produce a political reversal in the State of the Living Spring.