Political tension is rising in Ogun State as Governor Dapo Abiodun and former governor Gbenga Daniel (OGD) prepare for what many describe as a high-stakes contest over political dominance in Ogun East ahead of the next electoral cycle.
The rivalry between the two political heavyweights has developed into a fierce battle, with both camps intensifying moves to secure influence, control party structures, and position themselves for the party ticket.
A Walk Down Memory Lane: OGD’s Political Strength
Gbenga Daniel, a two-term former governor and now a senator, built a strong political structure during his time in office. He was known for appointing a large number of political aides—a move that drew criticism at the time—but it ultimately strengthened his grassroots network, expanded loyalty, and sustained his political relevance.
His enduring political base, combined with his long-standing relationship with Bola Ahmed Tinubu, continues to position him as a major force in Ogun politics. Although both leaders had differences in the past, they later reconciled, restoring a strategic alliance that may play a key role in the unfolding contest.
Daniel’s electoral history also adds to his strength. He recorded wide victory margins during his time as governor and has maintained political relevance as a senator, reinforcing his image as a politician with strong grassroots appeal.
Dapo Abiodun: Incumbency and Strategic Alliances
On the other hand, Governor Dapo Abiodun represents the power of incumbency. Before becoming governor in 2019, he had contested senatorial elections twice without success, even with the backing of former governor Ibikunle Amosun.
His eventual victory in 2019 came with a narrow margin. After four years in office, many expected a stronger electoral performance, but he again secured re-election by a slim margin, raising questions about his electoral strength.
However, Abiodun’s relationship with President Bola Tinubu has grown stronger in recent times. During a visit to Ogun State, the president openly stated that he played a significant role in Abiodun’s emergence as governor, a statement that has added weight to his political standing.
Who Wins the Ticket? Power vs Structure
As the contest unfolds, attention is focused on key factors: Gbenga Daniel’s strong grassroots network versus Abiodun’s incumbency advantage and growing federal connections.
The power of incumbency in Nigerian politics cannot be overlooked. Control of government structures, access to resources, and influence within the party often give sitting governors a major advantage.
At the same time, Daniel’s experience, political network, and past electoral success make him a formidable contender capable of reshaping the race.
Both camps have already begun exchanging political signals, suggesting that the contest may become more intense in the coming months.
The Bigger Picture
Ultimately, party leaders will likely consider electability and strategic advantage in deciding who gets the ticket—choosing the candidate most capable of winning elections.
As Ogun East becomes the center of this political contest, the outcome will shape not only the future of the APC in the state but also the balance of power between two of its most influential figures.
