2027 Politics: Why Kwankwaso’s Next Move Is Causing Anxiety in APC, ADC Camps
2027 P
olitics: Why Kwankwaso’s Next Move Is Causing Anxiety in APC, ADC Camps
As political permutations ahead of the 2027 general elections gather momentum, the future political destination of former Kano State governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has become one of the biggest talking points in Nigeria’s opposition and ruling party calculations.
Kwankwaso, leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and one of the most influential northern politicians, remains a major factor because of his grassroots structure in Kano and parts of northern Nigeria. Yet, recent electoral realities have also sparked a fresh debate over whether his inclusion in either the All Progressives Congress (APC) or the African Democratic Congress (ADC) would truly strengthen those parties — or become a political burden.
Many political observers believe Kwankwaso’s presence in any coalition could provide a psychological boost, especially in Kano where he still commands a loyal support base through the Kwankwasiyya movement. His popularity, political experience, and ability to mobilize supporters have continued to make him attractive to parties seeking northern relevance ahead of 2027.
However, another school of thought argues that recent election results suggest that parties may actually perform better without overdependence on Kwankwaso’s political structure.
Supporters of this argument point to historical presidential election outcomes in Kano, where former President Muhammadu Buhari consistently secured massive votes across multiple election cycles regardless of Kwankwaso’s political alignment.
In 2003, 2007, and 2011, Buhari recorded overwhelming victories in Kano even when Kwankwaso was either in the PDP or contesting separate political battles. In 2019, Buhari again dominated Kano while Kwankwaso and the PDP failed to deliver the state to Atiku Abubakar.
More significantly, the 2023 presidential election raised fresh questions about Kwankwaso’s independent electoral strength. Despite contesting as the NNPP presidential candidate and enjoying strong local visibility, he polled 997,279 votes in Kano — below the figures Buhari consistently recorded in the state during previous elections.
These results have fueled growing opinions within both APC and ADC circles that allowing Kwankwaso to remain outside the two major political camps could actually create a strategic advantage for whichever side already has stronger national momentum.
Some analysts believe his entry into either party could trigger internal power struggles, weaken existing alliances, and create leadership tensions among ambitious northern politicians already positioning themselves for 2027.
Others insist that while Kwankwaso remains a respected northern political figure, the era when a single political leader could single-handedly determine Kano’s presidential voting direction may be gradually fading due to shifting voter demographics, economic concerns, and rising youth-driven political awareness.
Within the APC, there are fears that accommodating Kwankwaso could upset existing party loyalists and influential stakeholders in Kano and across the North-West. In the ADC and emerging opposition coalition conversations, concerns also persist that handing Kwankwaso too much influence could alienize other regional blocs seeking a balanced power arrangement.
Ironically, some political strategists now argue that Kwankwaso’s strongest bargaining power may actually lie in staying politically independent rather than fully aligning with either APC or ADC too early before the 2027 elections.
As coalition talks continue behind closed doors, Kwankwaso’s next political decision may not only shape Kano politics but also influence the broader battle for northern votes in Nigeria’s next presidential election.
